30 Jun 2025, 08:05 GMT+2 A look at the day's performance on European and global markets, by Wayne Cole. The week on Asian markets had already started with a risk-on mood when news broke that trade talks between the United States and Canada had resumed after Prime Minister Carney agreed to revoke the digital tax, meeting President Trump's request. The new deadline has been pushed to July 21 from the initially scheduled July 9. Apparently, the July 9 deadline also seems to be extended for other talks, which, according to Treasury Secretary Bessent, could conclude by Labor Day on September 1. Wall Street futures are up about 0.4%, at all-time highs, with investors diving into mega-caps for the new quarter, while European and German stock futures are up about 0.3%. Most Asian markets are also trading higher, thanks to a further drop in oil prices amid the holding of the ceasefire in the Middle East. Investors are also closely watching the progress of the US bill for tax and spending cuts, which is moving forward in the Senate, while there are increasing signs that the July 4 deadline, hoped for by Trump, may be postponed. To buy time, Democrats are having clerks read every line of the 940-page bill, likely making them the only ones who know what's in the measure. According to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, the bill will increase US debt by $3.3 trillion over a decade, further testing foreign appetite for Treasuries. The impact has been most evident on the dollar. James Reilly, an analyst at Capital Economics, noted that at this time of year the dollar has fallen more than in any other year since the United States moved to a free-floating exchange rate in 1973. It also hasn't helped that investors have increased expectations of Fed easing by the end of the year, bringing them to 65 basis points. A cut in July is still considered a remote possibility. But the situation could change if the jobs data—to be released Thursday—delivers a downside surprise. In particular, an increase in the unemployment rate above 4.3% would bring it to levels not seen since the end of 2021 and would definitely set off alarm bells for the Fed. The main session 'drivers': - The European Central Bank forum begins in Sintra, Portugal - Germany, Italy, inflation estimate - Fed speeches, Bostic and Goolsbee
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