Today the American markets are closed for the Memorial Day holiday. On Friday, May 23, S&P 500 futures gained +1.1%, signaling optimism from investors after some positive developments on the geopolitical front. Main factors: President Trump has postponed to July 9 the imposition of 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union, easing fears of a trade escalation. This week, the April PCE data (the Fed's preferred inflation measure) and the second estimate of Q1 2025 GDP are expected, both crucial for the Federal Reserve's future moves. On May 21, the S&P 500 broke downward the daily long channel built between mid-April and the third week of May. The subsequent dynamic saw a precise technical retest of the lower edge of the channel, with a strong rejection, confirming a potential exhaustion of the short-term bullish momentum. Currently, the index is oscillating in a phase of sideways movement between 4,985 and 5,030, an area that respectively represents a technical support and a dynamic resistance zone, on which some significant moving averages (H1/H4) also insist. Main operating scenario: Alternative scenario:General Overview
Technical Analysis – by Smartia S.r.l.
In case of a return towards 5,030, intraday short entries are hypothesized with targets at 4,990 and subsequently 4,960, in view of a continuation of the corrective phase.
An H4 close above 5,050 could invalidate the short-term bearish setup, opening space for new extensions towards the all-time highs.
