After the Memorial Day holiday break (Monday, May 26), US markets reopen today with some caution but in a generally positive context. Investors are preparing for an intense week of macroeconomic data and key corporate events. April PCE Inflation (coming Friday, May 30): Second reading of US GDP Q1 2025 (Thursday, May 29): Confidence and employment indices: US-EU tariffs postponed: China-US situation: Nvidia (NVDA): Other earnings coming up: The Federal Reserve remains cautious. Long-term rates (10-year Treasury) are stable around 4.24%, indicating that the bond market does not fear a short-term rise in inflation. Index close: 5,802.82 (-0.67%) YTD performance: +11.4% Best performing sectors: Technology, Energy, Healthcare Sectors under pressure: Consumer goods, Financials The US stock market remains at high levels, supported by expectations of solid earnings, falling interest rates in the coming months, and the (momentary) absence of serious geopolitical risks. General Market Situation
Relevant Macroeconomic News
This is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation data. A lower-than-expected value could strengthen expectations for a first rate cut in September.
Analysts estimate confirmation of +1.7% year-on-year, but any revision will be closely monitored to assess the strength of the US economy.
This week, manufacturing and services PMI indices and some leading labor market data are expected. They will be crucial to assess the resilience of economic activity in the second quarter.Geopolitical and Trade Factors
President Trump has announced the postponement to July 9, 2025 of the entry into force of 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union. This move was welcomed by the markets and helped strengthen the climate of short-term stability.
There remains some tension between the two powers, especially in the technological and military fields, but no imminent escalation is expected at the moment.Highlighted Corporate Events
The highly anticipated quarterly results will be published on Wednesday, May 28. The stock has gained over 12% in the last two weeks and represents a barometer for the entire tech and AI sector.
This week, results from Salesforce (CRM), Costco (COST), and Dell Technologies (DELL) are also expected, useful for monitoring consumption and the adoption of digital infrastructure.Monetary Context and Interest Rates
Recent data on inflation and consumer spending do not yet justify immediate action, but market consensus is shifting toward a first rate cut at the September 2025 meeting.S&P 500: Data updated to the close of Friday, May 23
Conclusions
However, the current week will be crucial to understand whether the current optimism is justified or excessive. The publication of PCE and GDP data will provide a clearer picture of the state of the US economy and the future direction of monetary policy.